Pending Bill - Constitutional Carry
In the works: House Bill 1927, a law allowing nearly anyone 21 and older to carry a handgun without a license, passed the Texas House and is on its way to the Senate, where a safe GOP majority, like Tom Brady near the goal line, has no problem ramming bills into the end zone, setting up a simple pen flick at the Governor’s desk.
But it’s not that simple: This bill is a contradiction between popular politics and practical policy, a contradiction that has put some outspoken Republicans into a serious pickle.
The players: In support of the legislation: Freedom Caucus, Texas Republican Party, NRA, Speaker of the House Dade Phelan (R). Opposing the legislation: Police, Firearm Instructors, Moms Demand Action, most Democrats. On the fence: Lt. Governor Dan Patrick and Governor Greg Abbott.
Rewind: Representative Matt Schaefer (R) and the Freedom Caucus (think Tea Party, but extra) are getting the big W on this one since they have been pushing for loosening gun laws for years. Many politicians and insiders assumed they wouldn’t even get this bill out of committee (as many attempts were denied in the past), but here we are. Undoubtedly, Dade Phelan’s role as Speaker helped since he previously worked on similar open-carry plans when he was a Representative years ago.
The support: Matt Schaefer (whose bill pass rating is 3.3% over 8 years) has essentially argued that many people don't have the time or the money to get a permit, a process akin to getting a driver's license or registering to vote. By removing this burden, people can better exercise their "God-given" right to self-defense and constitutional right to bear arms. Dade Phelan agrees with him, having previously stated that it’s “not a big deal” and that “law abiding citizens are just fine carrying a firearm.”
The opposition: Many GOP members have campaigned on their support for the “back the blue” pledge and their antagonism against “defunding the police” measures, yet they are awkwardly opposing about 75% of chiefs on this matter. Dallas Police Chief Eddie Garcia claims “the licensing process is the best way to ensure” that gun safety is understood, and that the bill would ultimately make police officers "less safe." Given the recent mass-shooting with a handgun in Bryan, Texas, that critically injured a State Trooper when his cruiser was shot 13 times, the Chief’s point is particularly cogent.
The fence: Dan Patrick has previously straddled the fence on this particular issue, referring to the unlikeliness of the bill getting out of committee to avoid straight answers. Now that it is in his lap he has said “If we have the votes to pass a permitless carry bill off the Senate floor, I will move it.” Again, not exactly a full-throated endorsement of the bill, but a tactful acceptance of political reality. State Senator Kel Seliger (R) has a history of opposing Patrick and seems to be the one vote that is undecided, leaving Patrick one Republican vote shy of moving the bill into the end zone. But make no mistake—if Patrick wants the bill to pass, it will pass.
Pass the pickle: If Patrick passes it to Abbott, it could be damaging to Abbott’s bigger plans, forcing him to make a decision that can only exacerbate polarization. So far he too has dodged any whiff of a stance on the matter.
Bigger context: 20 other states have similar “constitutional carry” laws, so supporters have plenty of examples to point to, including Bernie Sanders’ Vermont, which, they claim, show a precedent of safety and success.
Right, but: Moms Demand Action would point to examples like Alaska where they claim the annual rate of aggravated assaults with a firearm has increased 71% since the state became the first to pass such a law in 2003.
Double but: According to deep-dive studies, evidence linking more guns to more crime is “limited,” and not as obvious as some argue, making the whole matter as clear as mud.
Where it stands: If Dan Patrick doesn’t get Kel Seliger on his side, he doesn’t have the math; the bill won’t get past the Texas Senate. Whether Patrick and Abbott are secretly fine with this subtle sabotage, isn’t clear. They would love to somehow turn this practical problem into political praise. Maybe they will throw Kel Seliger under the bus and punt on the issue.
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